Midterms 2026: Factors Shaping the Election

American voters cast their ballots Tuesday in midterm elections, a race that will determine congressional control for the last two years of Donald Trump's term. With 435 Senate seats and 435 House seats up for grabs, candidates from the left and right faced off on economic, social, and security issues. The numbers show record turnout in some areas, particularly in key states like Arizona and Nevada, where participation exceeded 55%. President Trump, despite his absence, influenced the debate through speeches. ⏱️ 2 min read The facts and recent developments Historically, midterm elections serve as a barometer of internal tensions within the ruling party. After Trump's victory in 2024, the 2022 results already showed a trend toward fragmentation, with Republican gains in the Senate. This dynamic intensified in 2025, marked by an economic crisis characterized by inflation, rising fuel prices, and dollar depreciation. These factors fueled a sense of insecurity that influenced voter behavior, especially among voters under 35, who now make up 32% of the electorate. The analysis of these elections reveals cross-cutting issues. In the Mediterranean, Tunisia, facing similar challenges (unemployment, energy dependency, and political tensions), could draw lessons on crisis management. The heightened polarization in the U.S. also highlights the risks of a fragmented political system, a phenomenon that could reflect in Tunisia's 2026 elections. Moreover, the growing role of social networks as a mobilization platform underscores a major shift in democracy, with challenges related to disinformation and opinion manipulation. The future outlook depends on the election results. If Democrats win the Senate, they could block